Following the release of Zlatan Ibrahimovic after only one season at Manchester United, Jose Mourinho is a manager on the look out for a new striker to lead the line and fire his team to glory.
He has a choice to make: Romelu Lukaku or Alvaro Morata. Neither will come cheap. Both are viable options, but which one would be best-suited to a move to Old Trafford?
Despite finishing sixth in the Premier League in 2017, they secured access to the Champions League through their victory over Ajax in the final of the Europa League, and will be seeking to add more silverware to the trophy cabinet in 2018 following their success in winning the EFL Cup at Wembley in February.
The former Sweden international was man of the match in that decider against Southampton, scoring both the opening goal and the winner, but was ruled out of contention for the climax of his club’s European adventure. Across all competitions, he ended the campaign with 28 goals from 46 appearances, and bagged 17 in 28 in the Premier League, although he wasn’t without his critics.
Ibrahimovic seemed to personify United’s problems when playing at home, converting a disappointing 12.3% of his chances at Old Trafford compared with 37.0% on the road.
While his size, strength and agility may have been assets when holding off defenders or finding a shot from an unlikely angle, the 35-year-old’s lack of speed and tendency to scuff some of the easier chances that went his way lead to suggestions that Mourinho’s side had the potential go even better without him.
Players such as Paul Pogba, it was argued, needed runners and movement, not a static target man whose attributes naturally forced the majority of his team’s play to go through him, sometimes to the detriment of others. Even so, including assists, he was still directly involved in a whopping 40.74% of their league goals. That’s some responsibility to shoulder.
Now all those pet theories about the limitations that came through playing the ball up Ibrahimovic are set to be tested, with United in need of a centre-forward that can cover for the loss of goals following the Swede’s departure and prove they have the capacity to take the squad forward.
Lukaku or Morata? Let’s see what the numbers say.
Finishing
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On a basic level, over the past three seasons, Lukaku has scored more goals per 90 minutes than Morata – 0.51 against 0.33 for the Spaniard – although the 2016/17 was different. Used as an impact sub off the bench, the Real Madrid attacker actually out-scored the Belgian with 1.01 goals per 90 versus 0.69.
In the box, the Everton striker was still more efficient, however. He converted 30% of his shots in the area. Morata managed to convert 27.08%. Over the past three seasons, Lukaku has taken more shots in total too – 3.22 per 90 versus 2.17, or 2.22 on target against 1.40. He has the variety too, with 11 headed goals, 15 off his right and 27 off his left in the league since August 2014.
When it comes to finishing, it has to be the Belgian.
Round one: Lukaku
Hold up play
The Spaniard is without doubt the superior option when it comes to playing with his back to goal. Lukaku prefers to get a run on defences, whereas Morata has shown his value as a centre-forward who can bring others into play, especially during his two year stint at Juventus.
However, the statistics paint a more complex picture that might otherwise be assumed. Over the past three years, Morata has drawn more fouls per 90 than Lukaku (1.90 versus 0.80) and done more when it comes to defensive work, winning tackles and making interceptions (0.81 against 0.23), while the Belgian has actually created more chances (1.30 to 1.03 for the Spaniard) and completed more passes in the final third (10.04 to 6.96).
Despite the Real Madrid attacker recording more assists per 90 (0.26 to 0.16), Lukaku has actually played more through balls too – 20 in total, or 0.19 per 90, to three for Morata, or 0.07. Even so, these numbers must be considered in the context of each players’ respective styles of play and performances.
There is no doubt that for Everton, Lukaku is more than a goalscorer, but he is a striker that plays on the run, forcing defenders to back track, and benefits from being the sole focal point of how the Toffees play. Morata on the other hand, in spite of his own heroics as a finisher for Madrid, is a footballer who in Italy showed a greater aptitude for holding play up in the final third for others.
Round two: Morata
Movement
Here, Lukaku comes into his own. Not only has he shown his ability to pop up in dangerous areas more often than Morata, taking 0.65 shots from “big chances” – situations in which a player finds themselves in a position to shoot from very close range or with only the ‘keeper to beat – over the past three seasons, he has also taken carved out 20 goal-scoring opportunities on the counter-attack, or 0.19 per 90.
Morata, meanwhile, has averaged 0.37 “big chances” and 0.07 chances on the counter per 90, although unleashed off the bench and in a more aggressive role for Madrid last season, the Spaniard actually took on more “big chances” (1.01 per 90 to 0.66) than the Belgian. He is no slouch.
Yet it is the intelligence of Lukaku’s movement, and awareness of which gaps to hit, that have set helped to set him apart as a striker worth investing in. Due to his height, he is wrongly regarded as a target man. Early and inaccurate descriptions of the Belgian as “the new Drogba” hardly helped him either.
He is effectively an extra large poacher who excels at dropping off his markers, peeling away to the flanks or lingering around the box in order to arriving in the sort of areas defenders don’t want him to be in, coming from an angle that they can’t deal with.
Round three: Lukaku
Duels
A category in which the Belgian just about pips his rival. With his quick feet, he can turn defenders inside out to force back lines to implode, and completed 1.74 take ons per 90 last season (1.18 in the final third) compared to 1.48 (1.08) for Morata. Over the past three seasons, it’s a similar story: 1.44 (1.00) for Lukaku, 1.27 (0.79) for the Spaniard.
In the air, it’s closer still, although not in the way that may be obvious. While the Everton striker rules over Morata through the sheer number of aerial duels won (2.81 versus 0.85 over the last three seasons) for success rate, the Spaniard shows the value of quality, over quantity, completing 46.99% of his headers to 39.97% for Lukaku.
Yet playing up top for United, in front of a midfield primed with playmakers ready to unleash a centre-forward capable of taking teams on as well as taking their chances, surely it’s the Belgian who stands out here.
Round four: Lukaku
Big moments
In the common parlance of modern football, the question is which striker is the true clutch player out of Lukaku and Morata?
The Spaniard’s record is hard to beat. He has already scored more Champions League goals than Diego Costa, and in 2015 found the back of the net in both of the semi-finals and in the final against Barcelona for Juventus. Last season in La Liga, only Lionel Messi and Neymar scored more goals in the last 10 minutes of games than the Real Madrid striker.
Lukaku can be the man of the moment too, however. No player scored more goals from “big chances” in the Premier League last season. He was tied with Harry Kane on 18. The Belgian also topped the charts for goals in the final 10 minutes of action too, with nine – five more than Morata managed in Spain. Against tired legs, his underrated dribbling abilities, movement and capacity to catch teams on the break cannot be dismissed.
Still, due to his greater experience of European football in the Champions League, and a record of delivering when it matters – Morata scored three goals in four games at Euro 2016, compared to two in five for Lukaku – the Spaniard takes the plaudits when the crunch hits.
Round five: Morata
Conclusion
Neither player is a perfect replacement to Ibrahimovic. They each have their own charms and profiles as centre-forwards, yet with three categories to two, it is the Belgian that comes out on top in a head-to-head comparison with the Spaniard.
That’s assuming Mourinho wants more of an out-and-out goalscorer, of course. Manchester United were fourth for attempted through balls in the Premier League last season. Stick a quick finisher who can move well at the head of their attack and those defence-splitting balls from Paul Pogba, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Ander Herrera could make all the difference.
Alternatively, Morata could help to bring this supporting cast into play to contribute more in the final third too. Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial may get more out of a strike partner happy to hold the play up to slip them in to get at teams too. The Spaniard has always been comfortable dropping back to help link the play between midfield and attack too.
Still, by signing Lukaku, United would be gaining a Premier League-proven goalscorer who knows the league well and has ambitions to challenge for the biggest prizes in club football. In a straight choice between the two, it has to be the Belgian for his finishing, his movement and the threat he poses in one-on-one situations.
Final results
Romelu Lukaku – three categories out of five
Alvaro Morata – two categories out of five
Alvaro Morata – two categories out of five
Winner: Romelu Lukaku
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